This morning on the radio, I heard that oddsmakers are saying the odds are 1 to 2 that Karl Rove will be indicted, and 3 to 2 that he will not.<\/p>\n
That isn’t possible.<\/p>\n
Odds of 1 to 2 that he’ll be indicted mean that for every chances, there is 1 chance that he will not be indicted and 2 chances that he will. That corresponds to a probability of 2\/3 that he will be indicted.<\/p>\n
Odds of 3 to 2 that he won’t be indicted mean that for every 5 chances, there are 3 chances that he will be indicted and 2 that he will not. This corresponds to a probability of 2\/5 that he won’t be indicted.<\/p>\n
But the probability that he will + the probability that he won’t has to equal 1. 2\/3 + 2\/5 does not equal 1. The oddsmakers don’t know what they’re talking about.<\/p>\n
They were also saying that Dick Cheney’s chief of staff “Scooter” Libby will almost certainly be indicted. You know, when I was 21 I went to this club downtown called Zot which was about 50% straight\/50% gay. There was this very flamboyant guy named Scooter who danced on the speakers and told everyone he had a vagina, not a penis. I wonder if it’s the same guy?<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
This morning on the radio, I heard that oddsmakers are saying the odds are 1 to 2 that Karl Rove will be indicted, and 3 to 2 that he will not. That isn’t possible. Odds of 1 to 2 that he’ll be indicted mean that for every chances, there is 1 chance that he will … Continue reading “Math lesson, and a Scooter comment”<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[1],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.paulryburn.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/211"}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.paulryburn.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.paulryburn.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.paulryburn.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.paulryburn.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=211"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"http:\/\/www.paulryburn.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/211\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.paulryburn.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=211"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.paulryburn.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=211"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.paulryburn.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=211"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}