(Note: The numbers I reported here were as of a few minutes before 8:00 AM August 24, prior to Shelby County releasing its Monday data mid-morning.)
One of the tripwires listed in Health Directive No. 10 that would allow limited-service restaurants to reopen in Shelby County was tripped as of yesterday. A limited-service restaurant is one that serves food, but for which 50% or more of its total sales come from alcohol. This classification takes the place of what would be known as “bars” in most other states. The LSRs were closed by the Health Department on July 9 as a precaution to prevent the spread of COVID-19.
As of yesterday, the 7-day rolling rate of new cases per day (as seen on the data dashboard, third chart from the top) shows the average at 179 for the most recent period, August 17-23. Let’s have a look at this and other requirements to, as stated in the health directive, “open limited service restaurants and other food/drink establishments that are currently closed.”
New cases over a 1-week period averaging less than 180 cases/day based upon date of testing. The mark set yesterday of 179 meets this qualification, the first day since June 16 the rolling 7-day number has fallen below this threshold.
Downward trend line for 2 consecutive weeks (14 days). The line began trending downward July 16, more than a month ago.
Rate of new cases decreasing by ≥ 30 % per week over 2 consecutive weeks (14 days). To express this in round numbers, if you started off with 1000 cases a week, you’d need to see a decrease to 700 by the end of the first week and 490 by the end of the second to hit this trigger. Two weeks before 8/17-8/23’s rolling new case number would be August 3. The case number that date was 248. That’s a 27.8% (248 – 179 = 69) decrease in new cases over 2 weeks, which is certainly good news, but not close to 30% a week over two weeks. This trip wire has not been triggered yet.
Reproductive Rate ≤ 1.0. The Shelby County Health Department does not report this number on their data page, but the last time they announced this number in a press conference it was around 0.82. This is very good, indicating that the virus is having trouble transmitting to new hosts.
Positivity Rate ≤ 10%. The most recent 7-day rolling positivity rate is 11.4% (as seen on the data dashboard, fifth chart from the top). Shelby County is heading in the right direction, but this is another trip wire that hasn’t been tripped.
Three of the five criteria have now been met. Now, the question is, how are these conditions joined together? Is it an AND situation, where all of them have to be met? Is it an OR situation, where one of the five would merit reopening consideration? Is it a “most of” situation, where the Health Department would be willing to overlook the 30% week over week criterion if everything else were trending in the right direction? The document didn’t say. Whether it was the authors’ intention to remain artfully vague on that point, or whether it was an oversight, we don’t know.
No other news to report at this time… I was working on a side project yesterday, so I didn’t keep my eye on the usual sources. I will tell you more about the side project when done. I did watch WWE Summerslam last night, and it exceeded my expectations. I won’t spoil the finish, but it was totally unexpected and is something that has needed to happen for a long time. Back tomorrow with more news, or possibly later today if anything interesting comes up.