This morning on the radio, I heard that oddsmakers are saying the odds are 1 to 2 that Karl Rove will be indicted, and 3 to 2 that he will not.
That isn’t possible.
Odds of 1 to 2 that he’ll be indicted mean that for every chances, there is 1 chance that he will not be indicted and 2 chances that he will. That corresponds to a probability of 2/3 that he will be indicted.
Odds of 3 to 2 that he won’t be indicted mean that for every 5 chances, there are 3 chances that he will be indicted and 2 that he will not. This corresponds to a probability of 2/5 that he won’t be indicted.
But the probability that he will + the probability that he won’t has to equal 1. 2/3 + 2/5 does not equal 1. The oddsmakers don’t know what they’re talking about.
They were also saying that Dick Cheney’s chief of staff “Scooter” Libby will almost certainly be indicted. You know, when I was 21 I went to this club downtown called Zot which was about 50% straight/50% gay. There was this very flamboyant guy named Scooter who danced on the speakers and told everyone he had a vagina, not a penis. I wonder if it’s the same guy?