A concept that has tripped up political parties’ presidential nominees for more than 30 years is the concept of “next.” As in, this person has been a top party dignitary for quite some time, now it is their time to run. They’re anointed “next,” overlooking their flaws and their inability to excite the electorate.
Walter Mondale was “next” for the Democrats in 1984. He’d served his time as Jimmy Carter’s vice-president. Now it was his time. Except that, despite being a man of ideas who was clearly qualified for office, he was boring. Worse, his boringness was a contrast to the charm of President Reagan, a people person if there ever was one. Mondale lost in a landslide.
Bob Dole was “next” for the Republicans in 1996. He’d served as Ford’s running mate in 1976, he built up a name in unsuccessful presidential primary runs in 1980 and 1988, and like Mondale he clearly had the qualifications for the office. But he too was boring. And old. You’d think the Republicans would have put forth someone who could better match President Clinton’s charisma and youth. They didn’t. It was seen as Dole’s time. Dole’s nomination handed Bill Clinton a second term on a silver platter.
John Kerry was “next” for the Democrats in 2004. He was in his fourth term in the Senate, and had served on the Foreign Relations Committee. He was clearly more qualified than George W. Bush. But Kerry was an unexciting candidate, and the American public decided they were happy with what they had in Dubya, even though many of them disagreed with his invasion of Iraq,
Ronald Reagan energized the American electorate in 1980. A former actor, he wasn’t as qualified as some of his primary opponents (including Dole) or as President Carter. He also wasn’t “next.” But Republican voters understood that he was the man who could win over the entire voting public – not just them – and he was swept into office.
Barack Obama energized the American electorate in 2008. He wasn’t “next” – Hillary Clinton was, and although qualified for the office, he wasn’t as qualified as Clinton. However, his enthusiasm and optimism won over the Democratic base, and they knew they had the man with both the ideas and the charm to lead the country. He defeated war hero John McCain in the general election, bringing the Democratic party back to the White House for the first time in eight years.
Donald Trump energized the American electorate (or at least enough of it) in 2016. Although unqualified to be president and often vile and hateful, he tapped into a root emotion of the American public – deep dissatisfaction with the status quo. Facing a flawed opponent, he was able to flip states in his opponent’s “blue firewall” red, ascending to the presidency.
Trump’s flawed opponent, Hillary Clinton, was “next” in 2016. It was her time after almost being “next” in 2008. Even though polls showed that her primary opponent, Bernie Sanders, would win more states, and even though she had some skeletons in her closet from her days as Secretary of State and her involvement with the Clinton Foundation, Democrats went with what was familiar.
Both political parties would do themselves a favor if they got away from the concept of “next.” If they started evaluating candidates on not only their ideas, but the ability to excite the entire American public – not just the party base – about those ideas.
For the Democrats specifically, I have one piece of advice for you.
Get rid of superdelegates.